What significant events occurred on this day, July 29th, in automotive history? Tune in to find out!
Cars and people mentioned in this episode:
What significant events occurred on this day, July 8th, in automotive history? Tune in to find out!
Cars and people mentioned in this episode:
Follow The Collector Car Podcast: Website, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube or communicate with Greg directly via Email. Support this channel by supporting us at Patreon.
Join RM Sotheby's Car Specialist Consultant Greg Stanley as he applies over 25 years of insight and analytical experience to the collector car market. Greg interviews the experts, reviews market trends and even has some fun. Podcasts are posted every Thursday and available on Apple Podcast, GooglePlay, Spotify and wherever podcasts are found. See more at www.TheCollectorCarPodcast.com or contact Greg directly at Greg@TheCollectorCarPodcast.com. Are you looking to consign at one of RM Sotheby's auctions? Email Greg at GStanley@RMSothebys.com.
Greg uses the Sports Car Market and Hagerty Valuation Guide for sourcing automotive insights, trends and data points.
RM Sotheby's Car Specialist, Felix Archer, reviews the importance of Lewis Hamilton's GP Winning McLaren that is coming up for auction at the British Grand Prix on July 17th. Learn about its history, the secret modification that had F1 drivers steering with one hand at over 200 mph and more. Be sure to check out the auction at RM Sotheby's.
With every new podcast you have a chance to win a fun prize! Starbucks gift card, Concours tickets and car swag! All you have to do is answer an EASY question by listening to that week's podcast episode.
How do you do it? Follow The Collector Car Podcast on Instagram or Facebook to get the question and DM me with your answer. The first correct response wins! Super easy right?:)
Before I get to today’s podcast, I thought I’d give a few updates on what’s been going on in my car world. Be sure to stay tuned as I have some really cool new coming soon. One of the coolest things that has happened recently is that this podcast ranked #11 for Automotive podcast on iTunes. This is really amazing as I’m close to my favorite podcasts. Car Talk is #1, The Smoking Tire #3, CarCast is #4 and Spike’s Car Radio is #8. And I’m one ahead of The Collecting Cars Podcast with Chris freaking Harris! That is one I am going to subscribe to right now.
If you’ve check out my Instagram feed lately, you see I came across a true barn find…a 1965 Galaxie 500 convertible.
Today, I am going to analyze Hagerty’s Muscle Car index and see if size really does matter when looking at cars. I came up with this idea while I was conducting the research for last week’s podcast: 15 Cars to Buy, Sell and Hold in 2020. I noticed that the valuation trend of numerous, small-block or base model muscle cars was on the upswing after a few years of either static or declining growth. So what do I mean by size? Engine size. Small-blocks verses big-blocks. Hi-Po verses the base model. GTOs verses Le Mans, 426s verses 318s, Boss 429s verses Boss 302s, Yenkos verses SSs. More on this in a minute. First, let’s talk about the collector car market as a whole and see how it is doing. If you go to Hagerty.com, you can check out their Market Trends which is a subset of their valuation tools.
These trends are based on a ton of info including values from the Hagerty Price Guide, Auction Activity, Expert Sentiment, Private Sales Activity, Insured Values, etc. You might ask, like I did, how do you quantify expert sentiment? Well, from Hagerty, this is to “account for market factors that cannot be quantified through transactional data, a subjective opinion of the market is provided by a carefully curated list of experts. This panel is comprised of subject matter experts from all categories of collectible vehicles.” It is done through a market survey where they calculate the average score of the responses which a poll of expert on a 1-100 level of confidence in the market. All of the links to this information is on my blog at www.TheCollectorCarPodcast.com.
So how is the market doing? In a word, so-so. The December 2019 score is 61.91 which is a five-year low. The all time high was May of 2015 at 71.95. The good news is that it is declining at a slower rate which will hopefully lead to a turn around soon. Let’s keep this in mind as we look at our muscle cars. Expert commentator, Andrew Newton, states that “This time last year, Hagerty’s Muscle Car Index was at an all-time high, but over the past four months it recorded the largest drop of any index for the second time in a row, falling 7 percent to a five-year low. While more than three-quarters of the index’s component cars recorded no change at all, another large drop for the 1970 Hemi Cuda convertible (among the most valuable muscle cars of all) and a 4 percent decrease for the 1964 Impala SS were more than enough to pull the overall score down.”
It is interesting that he called out the Impala as there were two other cars that declined sharper in the latest 52 weeks. It probably has to do with the timing of the data windows.
Hagerty’s Muscle Car Index is comprised of 15 cars:
What do you notice about this list? All but two of them have big-block engines. The two exceptions are the 1965 Shelby GT350 with it 289 and the 1970 Plymouth Cuda AAR with it’s 340. This made me wonder, what would the results look like if I substituted these cars with their small-block or base car for comparison? So that is what I did! Let review each and I will summarize my findings at the end of this podcast.
Take this information with a grain of salt. The big-blocks are more desirable and have been appreciating for years. As those prices go up, the small-block and base cars follow. I think what we are seeing here is more buyers are opting for less expensive but still fun, muscle cars that they can drive and enjoy. Speaking of which, I need to get out there any enjoy this cold, wet and rainy day here in Cincy.
All data is sourced from Sports Car Market’s Platinum database, Hagerty’s Valuation Tools and the commodity website links in my blog which you can find at www.TheCollectorCarPodcast.com.
Until then, keep your tires straight, your foot on the gas and eyes on the road!
A quick update. I’ve just redone the website so making it easier for you to hear the podcasts that are about the cars you care about. I broke it up into 15 categories: Market Trends, The Collectors, The Experts, The Auctions, The Dealers, The Museums, Muscle Cars, Porsches, Exotics, European Cars, Youngtimer, JDM/Asian, American, Pre-War Classic and Just For Fun. Some podcasts will fall into multiple categories such as the latest one, Ron Barnaba. He’s a dealer, expert, collector and he is focused on Porsches having had a 50-year career with them.
And if you like what I’m doing, please share with your friends! Subscribe to this podcast and on Instagram at TheCollectorCarPodcast. I’ve started sharing pictures from my visits to some of these locations and I’m timing it with the podcast’s release date. So you can see the Porsche RSRs from Ron Barnaba’s personal collection from last week’s podcast.
This episode was prompted by a recent article I read. It was called “Hagerty’s 2020 Bull Market List: 10 collector cars (and one bike) on the rise this year”. This is my list and I tried not to have any duplicates but there are two. Instead of only cars to buy that will be appreciating, I chose 15. Five to buy, five to hold and five to sell now.
Buy are cars that have investment potential
Hold are cars where their value trend has flattened out, softened or have declined slightly (all Air-Cooled Porsches…Hagerty recently had an article about the decline of 993 prices)
Sell are cars that have increased declining value trend with no change in sight. May be related to generational shifts in the collector car market.
I’m going to start with the boring one first…Hold.
As always, thanks for checking out my website. You can see I'm passionate about cars and this passion is manifesting itself in a new way. This hobby is gaining a new dimension as I've accepted a consultant role as a Car Specialist for RM Sotheby's which is the global leader in the collector car industry. This move totally aligns with everything I have been attempting to do. You can follow my auto-centric adventures at my Instagram feed.
Other changes involve this website. Now you can see the categorys and podcast episodes on the home page. Just click to find what you want and then click to learn more about the episode and listen to the podcast. Each episode will have its own webpage. Google doesn't recognize my awesome podcast artwork so this will help drive traffic to the site.
If you or someone you know, would be a great guest or wants assistance at an RM Sotheby's auction, please contact me directly here. Thanks, Greg
Happy New Year to all of you! In preparation for the sale of Steve McQueen’s Bullitt Mustang at Mecum’s Kissimmee sale next week, I thought I would do a deep, deep dive into the data to ballpark what I think it will sell for. I will calculate the “Steve McQueen Multiplier”, I’ll review the highest selling Mustangs, Shelbys and famous movie cars of all time AND other ICONIC items of note. All data is sourced from Sports Car Market’s Platinum database, Hagerty’s Valuation Tools and the website links in my blog which you can find at www.TheCollectorCarPodcast.com.
Steve McQueen famously drove this Dark Highland Green GT 390 fastback in the most famous car chase scene ever in a movie. It has been called the greatest car chase by BBCAmerica, Popular Mechanics, Fandango, NAPA, CNN, and Reader’s Digest. Two Mustangs were used and it has long been thought that one was crushed after filming that the hero car was hidden in a barn in Kentucky. About ten years ago, I made a half-hearted attempt to find it with no luck. It turns out that both survived and the “crushed” car was discovered in Mexico as it was being restored into an Elenore Shelby clone and it is currently being restored. The Mecum car is the “Hero Car” and unrestored and it came out of hiding a few years ago and has been making a world tour. It was the 21st car listed on the History Vehicle Register. For reference, the other movie cars on the Register include the Tucker and the fake Ferrari from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.
Hot Rod article, The Long-Lost “Crushed” Bullitt Stunt Car was Found in Mexico
To put into perspective how epic of a car this is, I’m going to quote a few folks. The first is a Bloomberg article by Hannah Elliot.
“Bullitt is effectively a one-of-one example touched with the golden blessing of car culture’s most important god; it has transcended into pop culture with few direct comparisons from which to predict a sale price. Which means that how much it actually sells for next month is anyone’s guess. Dana Mecum has said Bullitt will sell for at least $3 million; a recent Hagerty magazine article said it will be at least $4 million; Klinger himself said he expects it could take nearer to $5 million.”
The article continues with a quote from Sam Murtaugh who is Mecum’s vice president of marketing.
“A movie car always has a multiple applied to it,” says Murtaugh. “When you add the Steve McQueen factor, that multiple effect goes up exponentially. It varies depending on the item whether it’s a motorcycle or a car he used to own, but with Bullitt being in a movie and driven by McQueen, you’ve got a double-multiple going on, and with McQueen it has always been a multiplier of 10x or 15x.”
We will see in a moment if Steve McQueen cars truly sell 10 to 15 times their value. The Mustang is not being sold at one of the high-end auctions which is interesting. I would have chosen to sell it during Monterey Car Week hoping two billionaires get into a bidding war. But, anyone who has interest in this car will be paying attention no matter where or when it is being sold. And it is being sold at no reserve because the current owner, Sean Kiernan, does not want to go through this process again.
Hagerty also had some interesting quotes about the Mustang.
“Estimating the value of an iconic car like the Bullitt Mustang can be difficult since it’s impossible to know just how much someone is willing to pay for a car that is so ingrained in American pop culture and has never been at auction before—particularly one that was driven by “The King of Cool” in arguably the greatest car chase in movie history. Certainly that number will be in the millions.
“There really is no other car to which it can be compared,” says automotive expert and author Colin Comer. (Who is author of one of my favorite boos, The Complete Book of Shelby Automobiles) “When you put everything together—a cultural icon, connected to a movie legend, and it’s a Mustang—it really stands alone. Then you consider that most people thought it was long gone, destroyed, it was amazing enough when it came out of hiding 18 months ago in near-original condition. Now, for someone to actually have an opportunity to own it for themselves—a car that McQueen couldn't even buy—this is an unprecedented historic event.”
Steve McQueen famously tried to get this Mustang back in 1977 by sending a letter to the owner. This is a great example of how not to endear yourself with someone who has something you want. It read,
“Dear Mr. Kiernan,
Again, (horrible way to start a letter) I would like to appeal to you to get back my ’68 Mustang. I would like very much to keep it in the family in its original condition as it was used in the film, rather than have it restored; which is simply personal with me. (he’s doing ok…)
I would be happy to try (no guarantees, I will at least make a phone call) to find you another Mustang similar to the one you have, if there is not too much monies involved in it (this should have never been written!). Otherwise, we had better forget it. (you closed the deal but in the wrong way!)
With kindest regards, I remain very truly yours, Steve McQueen”
I am going to do the impossible and make a very educated guess on what the Bullitt Mustang will sell for by analyzing six data sets: current Muscle Car trends, valuation of a “non-Bullitt” 1968 390 GT Mustang, the top selling Mustangs and Shelbys of all time, recent sales results of movie cars, calculating and applying the Steve McQueen Multiplier and reviewing a few Iconic items that have sold recently. I’ll then throw all of this data into my algonkculator to come up with my estimated hammer price…also know as my best guess.
Current Muscle Car Market Trends and Valuation for a 1969 Ford Mustang GT 390 Fastback
Andres Newton, author of the Hagerty Price Guide Index of America Muscle Cars stated that, “Of Hagerty’s seven primary collector car indices, the Muscle Car Index experienced by far the largest drop in the latest update with an 8 percent fall. In fact, it was the only index to move more than 2 percent in either direction. No component cars recorded a gain and nearly half of them fell in value.
While all of the Chevrolets in the Muscle Car Index saw drops, the Mopars saw bigger ones. The 1970 Cuda AAR dropped 18 percent and the 1970 Hemi Cuda convertible, among the most valuable of all muscle cars, fell 13 percent. None of this is cause for panic, however, as most of the significant decreases in the muscle car market both inside and outside of this index are for the most expensive cars. Most prices in the broader muscle car market are firm, and the most popular models’ popularity among younger enthusiasts should at least keep them that way.”
- Andrew Newton, September 2019
Of the 15 cars represented the biggest depreciator was the 1970 Hemi Cuda convertible took a $700k hit (#1).
It peaked at $3M in January 2016 and now is $2.3M which is a 23.3% decline. From May to Sept it was down $150,000…-10.3%. If you look at just the Mustangs represented in the Index (’65 GT350, ’68 GT500KR, ’69 Boss 429), they were only down 0.5% for the same timeframe.
The real Bullitt Mustang is unrestored and shows surface rust, dents dings and other flaws from being thrown around the San Francisco street in the movie and additional 50 years of time. Hagerty describes “#4 vehicles are daily drivers, with flaws visible to the naked eye. The chrome might have pitting or scratches, the windshield might be chipped. Paintwork is imperfect, and perhaps the body has a minor dent. Split seams or a cracked dash, where applicable, might be present. No major parts are missing, but the wheels could differ from the originals, or other non- stock additions might be present. A #4 vehicle can also be a deteriorated restoration. "Fair" is the one word that describes a #4 vehicle” The Bullitt Mustang falls off of the Hagerty chart and is a #5 car. Currently, the average value for an everyday 1968 390 GT Mustang fastback with a factory four speed is…
I place the value of the Bullitt Mustang without its movie provenance or Steve McQueen ownership at $35,000. Keep this in mind for when I factor in the McQueen Multiplier in a minute. A bit of good news, 1968 Mustangs are up 5.0% from January to September of 2019 which goes against overall muscle car trends.
Top Selling Mustangs and Shelbys of All Time
Now it is time to review the top selling Mustangs and Shelbys of all time. The top selling Mustangs are:
1969 Boss 429s are down 12% from their May 2017 peak. The top selling Shelbys are:
This is interesting information but not much that will help us on evaluating the price of the Bullitt Mustang. The closest would be the Super Snake as it is one-of-one with strong provenance and unrestored. But it is a factory car, in much better shape and the best looking Shelby of the 1960s in my opinion. The fact that it almost doubled in price in six years speaks to the desire of collectors wanting automotive unicorns as the centerpiece of their collection. The Bullitt Mustang would be one of these.
Recent Movie Cars
Now I will review some movie cars that have recently sold and compare them to their non-celebrity counterparts. We will call this the “movie star factor”. I’m only going to pick eight cars that I feel are most applicable to the Bullitt Mustang which is a great car in a mediocre movie.
1968 Ford Gulf GT40 From Le Mans - $11 Million
1961 Ferrari 250 GT California Spider From Ferris Bueller's Day Off - $10.9 Million
1965 Shelby Cobra Daytona Coupe From Red Line 7000 - $7.6 Million
1956 Ferrari 250 GT LWB Berlinetta From The Love Bug - $6.7 Million
1966 Batmobile From Batman The Movie - $4.6 Million
1964 Aston Martin DB5 From Goldfinger & Thunderball - $4.6 Million
1969 Porsche 908.02 ‘Flunder’ Langheck Group 6 Prototype From Le Mans - $2.7 Million
1955 Ferrari 750 Monza Spider From On The Beach - $2.5 Million
1929 Duesenberg Model J Disappearing-Top Convertible Coupe From The Gay Divorcee - $2.3 Million
1970 Porsche 911 S From Le Mans - $1.3 Million
1965 Shelby Mustang GT500 From Gone In 60 Seconds - $1 Million
1969 Dodge Charger Daytona From Joe Dirt - $900,000
DeLorean DMC-12 From Back To The Future - $541,000
1970 Plymouth Barracuda From Nash Bridges - $151,200
1986 Pontiac Firebird Trans Am From Knight Rider - $150,000
1963 Volkswagen Beetle From The Love Bug (Herbie) - $126,500
1959 Cadillac Miller-Meteor ECTO-1 From Ghostbusters - $88,000
1972 Oldsmobile 442 From Sopranos - $61,000
The Movie Multiplier for all of these cars is only 4.9x. If we based the Bullitt Mustang on this multiplier it would sell for $172,710.39. This is not going to happen!
The Steve McQueen Multipler
Now let’s review the Steve McQueen Multiplier. Over his career McQueen owned many collector cars and I’ve tracked down 25 of them. Some of these were cars in the movies he was filming and he liked them so much purchased them once filming was complete. He also owned a lot of motorcycles but this is called The Collector Car Podcast, I will not review those. To calculate the McQueen Multiplier, I will only use the cars that were sold at a public auction and calculate the hammer price against the value of the car at the time of the auction. I will use Hagerty’s Valuation Guide and condition rating. The first 13 cars I will list are ones from his collection that are not a part of the multiplier as they have either never sold at auction or there are no comps for comparison. These 13 cars are:
Now for the 12 cars that have sold at auction that were used to calculate the McQueen Mulitplier
I’ve always heard that the McQueen Multiplier was 10 to 15 times the fair market value. But that is not correct. Based on these 12 cars, the McQueen Multiplier is 4.97. Based on this, we can do some quick math and multiply this by the average value of a #5 condition 1968 GT390 Mustang Fastback. That would equal… $174,068.47. Again, that is not going to happen! It is really interesting that both the McQueen and Movie Multipliers were almost the same. Why are these multipliers not applicable for the Bullitt Mustang? This is an easy answer, none of these cars have the “Bullitt Effect”.
Items from the movie have a track record for selling for astronomical amounts. McQueen’s original script sold for $44,000. His, at the time $25, Persol sunglass sold for over $70k and his brown tweed sportscoat from the movie sold for $120,000!
I realized I needed to look elsewhere for comps to help me come up with a realistic number. I decided to look at a few Iconic Items that have sold recently.
The Iconic Multiplier is 33.3x so the Bullitt Mustang would sell for $1,167,206.45.
What do all of this data not factor? The disposable income of prospective buyers. There is a big generation shift occurring right now in the collector car marketplace. Read any magazine or blog article and you will see many articles written about this. Including my own reviews which you can find on my website or anywhere podcast are found. While the shift is away from cars from the 1940s, 50s and 60s and to the 80s and the 90s, I believe this car will buck the trend.
The Bullitt movie was release in 1968 and this Mustang become the icon of every teen and pre-teen. Today, those kids are in the prime of their disposable income lives. They are retired, empty nesters who are enjoying their post career lifestyle and want to have fun. This is their moment to get the jewel for their collection and they will bid up for it. Because of this, I am going to call the final hammer price for the Bullitt Mustang at $5.6M. This is a 160x multiplier that will break all of the records. It will be the most expensive Mustang ever sold at auction and have the highest McQueen or Movie Multiplier ever.
It is an unrepeatable event and you can join me in two weeks to my thoughts on the results and how close or how far off I was in my guess. Until then, keep your tires straight, your foot on the gas and eyes on the road!
Some of you may be wondering about the yellow/beige color for this episode’s cover art. This is the first time I’ve had an engine on the cover, which makes sense, and the background color is from the engine decals on the 356.
I plan on doing a Market Trend analysis at least once a month and more as time permits. These are very time intense. A special shout out to Jim Moore and the Air Brigade who recent posted an article on Facebook titled “Are Air-Cooled Porsche Prices Softening?” That article is what put this high on my to-do list for the podcast. You will have to continue listening to find out if they are or not.
Also of note, if you missed it, our first ad was in the December issue of Sports Car Market. Stay tuned as I recently had a conversation with Keith Martin about a podcast project…hopefully more will come soon.
Be sure to check out the January issue of Classic Motorsports as our second ad will be appearing in that issue. Tim Suddard was a guest recently so if you have not listened to his interview, be sure to check it out on iTunes and wherever podcasts are found. As always you can find it at www.TheCollectorCarPodcast.com. You can also see all of the charts, graphs and data from this episode on my blog. I hope to incorporate these market trend reviews into video soon. Not much happens on my YouTube page but these would be worth a visit.
So onto Air-Cooled Porsche market trends. From a top level perspective, for the latest three years:
Click to listen to the podcast and be sure to listen to Pierre's episode as well. More to come soon and I welcome your comments! Greg
"The Collector Car Podcast is an automotive podcast where Greg Stanley interviews the experts, reviews recent auto auction trends and talks about cool car places he visits while traveling across the US. Greg reviews antique cars, classic cars, muscle cars, exotic cars, hyper cars, JDM cars, Porsches, vintage SUVs and anything else with four wheels and that makes noise. If you like the Smoking Tire, Spike's Car Radio or Car Cast, this is for you! This automotive podcast is available on iTunes, Stitcher, Google Play and wherever podcasts are found.
Greg uses the Sports Car Market and Hagerty Valuation Guide for sourcing automotive insights, trends and data points. "
Welcome to The Collector Car Podcast. Today I am going to review the market trends of Fox Body Mustangs, see which ones have appreciated the most in the last three years, review the Dennis Collin’s collection and see if it was a better investment than the stock market. And I will recommend which ones you should buy now.
If you are more of a visual person, be sure to check out this podcast on our YouTube channel where you will see all of the charts, graphs and data I talk about during this Fox Body Mustang Market Moment. First off I’d like to thank Sports Car Market for providing a Platinum Database subscription. This gives me even more data to dig into which you will see momentarily. I will have our first ad for the podcast in SCM’s December issue so be sure to keep an eye out for it. As always, you can see all of the cool car places I visit while traveling across the US on Instagram at The CollectorCarPodcast. Be sure to click on the Instagram Stories as I have been posting more videos there and they are only available for 24 hours.
A transcript of this episode will be posted as a blog on www.TheCollectorCarPodcast.com with all of the hyperlinks activated so you can explore and read the websites and articles I mention. So now onto some cars!
I have a love for all things Mustang. You can see my taproot car by watching the Simpler Times Petrolicous video which features my 1966 Mustang I sold a little over a year ago. My taproot car is the 1966 fake GT convertible you can see in one of the pictures and next to it is a pic of me with my first car…a 1968 Mustang coupe.
While I was falling in love with the First Gen Mustangs, two buddies received new GTs when they graduated in 1989. One white and one black. Bret and Jason…I hated those guys😊 Just kidding…Bret still has his last I heard.
A 1986 Fox Body Mustang GT was the first Mustang and the first 5.0 Mustang I ever drove. This one is my taproot Fox Body Mustang. It was during college…Ken Rinaldi, RA at Cash Hall in Tallahassee Florida owned it. I drove it in the underground garage so the stock exhaust sounded more menacing that it really was…and I loved it. I don’t recall ever driving it again but it made an impression.
The Fox body Mustangs have two distinct sub-classes. The 1979-1986 quad headlight and the 1987-1993 square headlight mustangs. There are more differences to mention as well.
The Quad-Headlight cars had carburetors except for 1986 where fuel injection was introduced. They were powered by a variety of 4, 6 and 8 cylinder engines which were all low on power. These cars are more difficult to restore as there is not a strong aftermarket parts supplier.
The square, or single headlight, Mustangs from 1987-1993 had less variation over the years and improvements were focused around increasing the horsepower of the 5.0 litre V8. These were hot-rodded like crazy and it is difficult to find an unmolested, original one today.
For the purposes of this evaluation, I am not including Capris, Roushes, McLarens, SSP, or other non-factory cars with the exception of Saleens. Why Saleens? Because enough of them are sold that we have data available to review them and their trends in the market are pretty strong so I wanted to be sure to review them.
Fox Body Mustangs are finally getting their due in the marketplace. Recent and very visible results include the collection of Fast and Loud’s Dennis Collin’s that were recently sold off at two different auctions. Dennis auctioned off five Fox Body cars in 2017 which averaged $54,340 and 18 cars in 2018 which averaged $29,752. These results were record breaking and made national headlines at the time. Expecially the 7-Up convertible that sold for over $80,000.
1.1993 Mustang LX Convertible with 340 miles sold for $53,900
1.1989 Mustang 5.0 LX Hatchback with 640 miles and never dealer prep sold for $71,500
I will review these more in depth in a moment. It may look like these have sold for a lot of money, and they did, but I’m going to dive into the numbers and see which one really was a good investment. To do this, let’s look at the market as a whole first.
My data is from Sports Car Market’s Platinum database. For the entire run of Fox Bodies, the Average Price by Auction Year went up 268.1% which sounds really amazing. However, the first year of record was 1993 and the average price was under $5,000. By 2019, the average price was $18,000. There are a lot of factors in this including more cars coming to auction, inflation and the growth of the auction industry.
If you break out the 1979-1986, quad car, Mustangs you see where most of this growth is coming from. The average went from less that $4,000 to around $14,000 which represented a 241.8% increase.
For the later cars, the growth is only 40% but that is against a much higher auction result price of $13,000 and it ended around $18,000. That means they depreciated less after the initial purchase so the gains were not has significant.
When we look at the values for particular models, the data gets even more interesting. Over its entire run, the base GT has increased it’s auction price from just over $10,000 to around $26,000 which is a 120.4% change.
The value of a base GT for quad cars is $16,000 and for square stangs it is $20,000. The Cobras are another story. The quad Cobras average value is $22,000 while for the square Cobras it is just over $50,000. The 1993 Cobra R is a real standout with its value for #1 condition being around $95,000. Cobra R #73 with only 589 miles sold for $132,000 in April of 2019.
Now let’s look at what has appreciated in the last three years. I am going to review these from the lowest to the highest increase in value. For a baseline, I picked my taproot car, a 1986 GT, which has not appreciated much at all at only 0.6%.
The 1984 MUSTANG G.T. 350 grew 4.5%
Celebrating 20 years of the Mustang brought about another limited edition that payed tribute to the classic Mustang G.T. 350 of 1964. These cars, which were all based off of a standard 1984 Mustang (Hatchback or Convertible), were built in just 35 days and featured an Oxford White exterior with red trim and a red interior. Of the 5,260 anniversary Mustangs made available, only 104 Turbo GT350 convertible models were created, each featuring the 2.3L turbocharged engine option. In all, it’s been reported that only 350 of the cars, both hatchback and convertible, featured the turbo engine.
The 1979 INDIANAPOLIS 500 PACE CAR grew 10.3%
For the first time since 1964, the Mustang had been selected to pace the Indianapolis 500 and it did it wearing a special themed livery and an assortment of exclusive parts. The popularity of the car sparked the creation of a limited run of replicas that mimicked the three original examples.Available with exclusive options like Recaro buckets and the metric sized TRX wheels this rare fox was highly desirable and saw a total production of 10,478 examples in the 1979 model year
The 1986 SVO grew 16.3%
Of most interest to collectors is the SVO (Special Vehicle Operations) version of the turbocharged four-cylinder, which squeezed 175–205 horsepower out of the 2.3-liter mill from 1985–86. The Mustang SVO also came with a more aggressive suspension setup, a limited-slip rear differential, four-wheel disc brakes, and unique rims, a special hood, and a blocked-off grille..
The 1985 GT Convertible grew 19.5%...last of the carburetor cars.
The 1992 5.0 Convertible grew 23.9% which I put in here because of two special edition variants.
The 1993 Saleen SC Convertible grew 28.7%...only five made…two convertibles and three coupes.
The 1993 Cobra grew 29.8%.
The 1993 Cobra R grew 30.5%. This is a souped up Cobra with a stronger suspension, bigger wheels and tires and brake upgrades. With just a little more horsepower. It had no fog lights as these were removed so more air could funnel into the engine and only 107 were built. They also lack creature comforts as the A/C was deleted as well as the rear seat and all power options which saved over 400 pounds.
Additional ones to watch out for…
1985-86 SAGE GREEN SVO "4E"
There were only 47 SVO Mustangs with Sage Green paint, between 1985 and 86, and of those 20 were made and marketed as Hertz rental cars.
1980-81 MUSTANG COBRA because it had an optional 2.3 Turbo in 1980 this car made 132 hp and 142 lb-ft of torque all while sporting a wild graphics package complete with a blazing Cobra on the hood. This car was a part of Ford’s push to try and make their smaller displacement engines a driving force in the industry, but the 302 inevitably returned in 1982.
Now let’s talk about Dennis’ collection. When you crunch the numbers, the record-breaking prices were a losing proposition. Let me preface this by saying, I don’t know how or when he bought them. The data I’m about to review, compares investing money in a new Mustang verse putting it in the stock market. For example, if you invested $1 in the stock market in 1983 it would be worth $8.74. The original list price for a 1983 Mustang GT was $9,328. So if instead of buying a new 1983 Mustang and squirreling it away as an investment hoping to sell it one day at a huge profit, you invested the $9,328 in the stock market, in 2019, it would have grown to $81,489.13. In this example, Dennis’ Mustang sold for $33,000 which seems like a win until you realize that you would have $48,000 more if you invested in the stock market. And this doesn’t factor in car insurance or the cost to store it for so many years.
So how did Dennis fair? If he bought all of these new, he invested $310,789. After the dust settled from both auctions, he netted out $834,200 not counting auction fees which we are not going to worry about for this example. That means his initial investment had a 168.4% return which sounds great right? Wrong! If he had invested the same amount of money in the stock market, he would have netted out $1,708,521.47 which would have been a 449.7% return! The only car that came close to making a better return was the record-breaking-unrepeatable 7-UP convertible that sold for $82,900. Even in this example, the stock market would have given you $101.33.
What’s the message here? Don’t be a speculator! Buy what you love and drive the heck out of it!!
So what would I recommend to buy now? Buy the Turbos! As more and more of today’s cars become turbo powered, enthusiast will want the original turbos for their collection. It will be about the technology and not the power. Buy up the SVOs, ’84 GT350s and Cobra Turbos wherever you can find them. And this is not limited to Mustangs. Check out the trend on the turbo models of the BMW 2002, Toyota Supra and Porsche 944 and you will see where the Mustang trends will be going.
The Cobra Rs and Saleen SCs will always be worth a lot so do not expect them to decline. Even as the currently market is declining, I think these will hold their value as the generation that love these is aging and acquiring more disposable income. And buy your Tap Root Mustang! I will always be on the look out for a red 1986 GT.
That is all for this week’s market moment! Agree, disagree or need to correct me on an errant fact? Respond to my blog, comment on Instagram or DM me directly…I will respond! As always, keep your foot on the gas and the tires pointed straight. I’ll talk to all of you next week.
The Hagerty valuation team has been predicting it for years. So when a 1990 7Up Edition Mustang 5.0 LX (albeit one with 15 miles on it) sold for $82,500 at Barrett-Jackson in Scottsdale this past January, it was pretty clear that the car had arrived as a genuine collectible.
Being such an enthusiast, I’m always keeping an eye out for new and interesting cars. Not to buy...I wish, but to enjoy. This was a banner week for a few reasons. The car that really sticks in my mind is a 2002ish BMW M5 that followed me out of Kroger a few days ago. It immediately almost got into an accident...no fault of the owner. He then passed me and pulled into a local restaurant. Of course, I pulled into say hi! It turns out his dad bought it new and it only has 38,000 miles. Knowing I could not afford it I asked him if it was for sale...you know, for a friend. It was not as he bought if from his dad for one dollar and was going to keep it forever. He was scheduled for some spruce up work at Enthusiast Auto Group so I had to text Eric, the owner, that I was drooling on one of his customers’ cars. Check out my Instagram feed for the pics.
I was back at Opie’s for his Cars & Coffee Saturday with a bunch of guys from my church. I’m the “car ministry” guy who coordinates visits to cool places. This time I had four newbies and a caravan of five nice cars: VW R32, 1956 Thunderbird, 996 911, Subaru STI and a M4...a nice and diverse group! Opie hosted the Concours Dinner I recently posted about and I got a closer look at his “new to him” 1968 Shelby GT 500 KR. I have dream cars and then I have DREAM cars and that is one of them. The only way it could have been better if it was a convertible four speed:). I’ve owned three Mustangs and they all have been manual so I have to keep the tradition alive right?
Another weird car that caught my eye recently was a truck. I was in Chicago and checked out the Iron Horse Motor Condos outside of Naperville, IL. That place is insane and more to come on that one. Picture lofts with the bottom floor being your six car garage. Outside was these weird, glitter enhance, 1970s decorated, convertible Blazer with side pipes. I had no idea what was going on with it but I loved it! Totally nuts. See pics here. I'm posting a lot more using the Instagram Stories function so check that out if you want to see live videos.
I’ve recently become a Selling Agent for collectible cars. This happened organically yet I find myself representing three cars within a few weeks. The first is live on www.Bringatrailer.com now. It is an amazing 1965 Corvette convertible I’ve been chasing for four years. I ran across it while going for a walk and it wasn’t for sale. It is awesome because the same folks have owned it since April of 1965. They are great and I’ve come to know them very well. I tried to buy it last year and we agreed on a price yet they couldn’t let go of it yet. I get it. After owning it for 54 years, I get not being able to let it go. Well, they called me this Spring ready to sell but I already bought the Porsche...happy and sad moment all at the same time. I’m out but I offered to sell it for them. If you are in the market, this is a fabulously original Corvette that is a great buy.
Since then, I’ve agreed to help sell a preservation class, NCRS judged 1969 Corvette with a 427 and the earlier mentioned 1956 Thunderbird from the cruise to Opie’s. This is incredibly fun and I will do my best for these folks. Truly great cars that will be going on to new customers soon. Stay tuned for updates and keep your wheels straight on those burn outs!
I’m new to this whole blogging so consistency is something I will be struggling with so please bear with me. When we last spoke, I was visiting a few cool car places in Providence, RI. Next was Boston...well, western Bostonish. I visited a friend who will remain nameless for soon-to-be apparent reasons. He is active in the Ferrari world and shared a few mind-blowing pictures with me. The first was requests for an approximate value of a Ferrari just outside of Boston. It was a little red convertible in a one-car garage that was partially covered by a car cover. IT WAS A FREAKING 1958ish FERRARI 250 GT CALIFORNIA! From the pic, neither one of us could tell if it was a long or short wheelbase car but who cares right? We had just discussed the disappointing results on two California cars that were up for sale at RM Sotheby’s in Monterey last week. Now granted, the disappointing results were still in the $8M-$9M range. Estimates were $11M-$13M so that was a significant drop in valuation.
He quickly followed that image up with a barrage of pristine, 1960s, NOS Ferrari accessories. These were from someone else. They included a set of NEW-IN-THE-BOX 1967 Ferrari Borrani wheels, two Ferrari tool kits and 1967 Ferrari literature. For reference, the tool kits can bring as much as $25k each. These might be on the market soon as he is trying broker a deal to sell them.
If you’ve followed my Instagram for a while, your know that I come across some really cool stuff on my travels: a 427 SOHC Ford racing engine in the box, a Boss 429 engine, a new 1966 Paxton supercharger, wrecked AC Cobras...yet, these pics eclipsed them all! Stay tuned to see what happenings.
One of my favorite stops while in Boston is to Copley Motorcars. They always have amazing cars and are welcoming to paparazzi such as myself. The best car there on this visit was a 1995 Ferrari F50 in the back that was the second one produced. I never though these were great looking cars but they are aging well. I remember the first time I saw on GA 400 north of Atlanta. It was back when the toll booths were still up and this F50 floored it as it exited. It was amazing.
Back in Ohio, I went to the Bellefontaine Hill Climb this past Saturday. I wasn’t sure what to expect and it was pretty cool. I took my dad and there wasn’t a lot of spectator parking so we had to hike out way a bit to get to the beginning of the hill climb. I was there to say hi to Dick Weiss who won it in 1962 in his Porsche Carrera Speedster which he still owns! He will be a guest on The Collector Car Podcast soon. He was the Grand Marshall this year and we got there just in time to see him launch up the hill. Check it out here.
With my 1999 996 back to 100%, I took it out for a proper thrashing on the local roundabouts Sunday. Sure, it is not the fastest Porsche out there but for my first one, it is awesome. I miss the ‘66 Mustang frequently but going for a blast down Cin-Day makes me miss it a little less.
I attended a Concours Dinner at Horsepower Farm Saturday afternoon and drove the Toyota FJ...a new one, not old even though I’d love to have matching FJs! The host, Opie, has a great collection of 1960s big blocks and just acquired a 1968 Shelby GT 500KR...my dream car. He said it was his but he has been known to joke around a bit so I told him he was lying. I had to go to his wife to get the real deal and she confirmed it was theirs. They bought it from a woman who owned it for over 50 years. It’s in a great home as Opie is fastidious about his collection and never sells anything.
The last note, if you listen to this week’s podcast, you will hear about a barn-find Speedster somewhere near Indianapolis. I am hot on its trail and I will keep you updated.
Keep it straight and keep it safe,
Wow, hosting two podcasts is exhausting! My career podcast for kids, Learn From Others, is doing well and kind of on cruise control except for editing. I'm so tired of deleting "ums", "likes" and moments of silence but I gotta do what I gotta do. This auto podcast is so much fun! But I'm stumbling on great opportunities for content...there is SO MUCH I WANT TO COVER! Just over the last two days I stopped in on a repair/restoration shop for mostly British cars called Kane Motorcars. A cool Stag and Healey 3000 was outside and a Porsche 912 and Sunbeam Tiger inside! That is just the tip of the iceberg and pics are on Instagram. They will be a guest one day.
Then I stopped by a legit restoration shop that was working on such high-end cars I was not allowed to take any pictures...except for this one.
Greg draws, talks, vlogs, blogs, writes, evaluates, judges, appraises, video tapes and consumes all things automotive. He even regurgitates useless car facts, stories, pictures and shares cool car places he's visited recently if you give him a chance.